Communications Earth & Environment

Mountain ecosystems face unprecedented pressures from anthropogenic activities and climate change, challenging the productivity of these vital habitats. In the Tien Shan mountains, understanding localized responses to these pressures is often hindered by the coarse spatiotemporal resolutions of available data. To address this, we combined high-resolution satellite imagery (1997-2021) to map land-cover dynamics in the Naryn oblast, Kyrgyzstan across a gradient of grazing intensities. We classified and quantified land-cover distribution over 24 years, investigating the roles of topography, elevation, and anthropogenic disturbances as drivers of change. Our results identify intermediate elevations, high degrees of disturbance, and the interaction between the two as the primary contributors to recent transitions in grassland, forest, and barren habitats. By integrating Landsat analysis-ready data, European Space Agency WorldCover dataset and digital elevation models at fine spatial scales, we provide valuable contemporary and historical landscape and habitat-level insights and a high-resolution framework for disentangling climate-driven shifts from land-use impacts. These findings highlight the urgency of localized management in remote, data-poor regions where rapid environmental change threatens both biodiversity and pastoral livelihoods. Our work serves as a critical baseline for characterizing the adaptability of semi-arid mountain rangelands under escalating global and regional pressures.

The contribution of tree foliage to atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes remains a major uncertainty in global GHG budgets. We made repeated in situ measurements of foliar CH4 and N2O fluxes across 25 temperate tree species interplanted at a forest restoration site using high-resolution laser spectroscopy. Tree foliage was consistently a net CH4 sink and a net N2O source in all species. Foliar CH4 oxidation increased by [~]33% in fall relative to spring and was [~]3-fold higher in shade-tolerant than shade-intolerant angiosperm species. Species differences accounted for most of the variability in fluxes, while correlations with soil emissions were comparatively weak. Microbial DNA sequencing revealed that the highest CH4-oxidizing angiosperm species (Tilia americana) harbored abundant Type I methanotrophs, whereas the lowest-oxidizing species (Prunus virginiana) had nearly 100-fold lower methanotroph abundance, with a foliar microbial community dominated by facultative methylotrophs. Global warming potential (GWP) scaling indicates that foliar CH4 uptake overwhelmingly dominates the net climate forcing effect. Our results suggest that the large and predictable differences in foliar CH4 uptake among tree species and associated differences in foliar microbial communities are of importance in understanding and potentially enhancing the global terrestrial CH4 sink.

Global marine heatwaves have devastated tropical coral reefs, and further mortality is projected under ongoing climate change. Identifying thermally tolerant coral colonies is therefore a priority for conservation, restoration, and research. Portable acute heat stress assays (e.g., CBASS) enable rapid, standardized estimates of coral thermal tolerance under field conditions. However, it remains unresolved whether such experimentally derived metrics (ED5, ED50, DW) predict bleaching and mortality in situ. Here, we quantified acute thermal tolerance metrics for 2,068 coral colonies across 12 common Indo-Pacific species, six months prior to an unprecedented heat stress event in northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and compared experimentally derived ED and DW values to subsequent bleaching severity and mortality in the field. Experimental thermal tolerance metrics explained only a limited proportion of variation in bleaching outcomes and survival. Predictive power varied among species and was higher in slow-growing species. Our findings suggest that while acute heat stress assays capture substantial variation in coral thermal tolerance, their ability to predict in situ outcomes is context-dependent and diminishes under severe thermal stress. Ultimately, in situ coral bleaching under severe heat stress may reduce the discriminatory capacity of acute assay-derived tolerance metrics.

1.1Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) is the standard metric for global coral bleaching prediction, yet its performance varies markedly across regions for structurally unexplained reasons. We analyse five years (2020-2024) of standardised bleaching surveys from Japans Monitoring Site 1000 program (26 sites, 113 site-years; balanced panel n = 105) across a 24-35{degrees}N latitudinal gradient to diagnose why DHW fails in subtropical waters. Only 4 of 113 site-years (3.5%) reached the DHW [&ge;] 4 alert threshold, while bleaching (>0%) was recorded in 65 site-years (57.5%). DHW sensitivity for detecting any bleaching was 6.2%. A simple absolute-temperature metric (days with SST [&ge;] 30{degrees}C) significantly outperformed DHW in discriminating [&ge;]50% bleaching (AUC = 0.926 vs 0.667, {Delta}AUC = 0.260, 95% CI [0.154, 0.355], p < 0.001), with the largest gap at low latitudes ({Delta}AUC = 0.293, p < 0.001). The Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) was strongly correlated with latitude (r = -0.914), compressing the thermal gap available for HotSpot accumulation at low-latitude sites and eliminating HotSpot events at high-latitude sites. This structural insensitivity -- arising from the anomaly-based design of DHW rather than from threshold miscalibration -- operated through two distinct mechanisms across the latitudinal gradient. At low latitudes, where MMM approaches 30{degrees}C, HotSpot signals were compressed below detection thresholds despite widespread bleaching; at high latitudes, SST rarely exceeded MMM, rendering HotSpot events absent altogether. These findings demonstrate that DHWs standard alert framework is structurally non-functional across Japans coral monitoring network and that regional assessment requires metrics independent of the MMM-relative anomaly architecture.

Benthic ecosystems are shaped by seafloor structure, yet linking geomorphology and biology across environmental gradients remains challenging. Here, we integrate seafloor imagery, multiscale bathymetry, and predictive modelling to quantify benthic biodiversity and its environmental drivers along the Powell Basin flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. Steep geomorphological landforms (terraces and steep slopes) hosted maximal densities and distinct communities, with significant enrichment of corals, sponges, ophiuroids, and sea pens. The marked congruence of slope across bathymetric resolutions enabled regional upscaling, estimating a standing stock of [~]96 billion individuals across 7,400 km{superscript 2} of the basin flank. Decadal oceanographic models indicate that benthic densities peak in cold bottom water below -0.15 {degrees}C. We identified four biodiversity hotspots ([~]33 km2) with slopes >35{degrees} and depths >1,700 m, with up to threefold higher densities. Hotspots align with the pathway of Weddell Sea Deep Water, where thermal decoupling between bottom and overlying waters indicates dynamic hydrography along steep, biodiverse terrain. Furthermore, contrasting sea-ice cover and stratification regimes suggest distinct cryo-pelagic-benthic coupling around hotspots. The concentration of biodiversity through seafloor geomorphology and ocean circulation bridges Antarctic benthic ecology from habitat to biogeography, with implications for monitoring change and guiding conservation in the warming Weddell Sea.

Marine and brackish-water ecosystems are increasingly degraded by cumulative human pressures, with biological invasions representing a major driver of biodiversity loss, ecosystem disruption, and socio-economic impacts. Effective management requires regionally harmonized and scientifically robust baselines capable of supporting coordinated transboundary decision-making. Here we present the first consolidated marine biosecurity baseline for the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area, a transboundary region characterized by extreme environmental conditions and increasing biosecurity pressure. A total of 192 species (123 extant and 69 horizon), including birds, fishes, tunicates, invertebrates, plants, and chromists, were systematically reviewed, taxonomically validated, and cross-checked against major databases and Member State inputs. Re-evaluation of a previous regional screening revealed substantial inconsistencies, with 24 species ({approx}18%) requiring status correction or exclusion. The resulting consolidated inventory comprised 130 validated retained species supplemented by 62 additional taxa. Extant species were classified according to biogeographic origin and impact status, whereas horizon species were evaluated based on introduction pathways, environmental suitability, and projected climate trends. Risk screening under current and projected climate conditions identified 39 extant species as very high risk, providing an operational basis for progression to full risk assessment and coordinated regional biosecurity management.

While Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems support low metazoan diversity, the surrounding marine macrobenthos is rich. However, marine meiofauna remains historically neglected, leaving its diversity patterns unclear. In this study, we used 18S rRNA gene metabarcoding alongside an enhanced taxonomic annotation pipeline to characterize marine meiofauna diversity in the Ross Sea, comparing it to global datasets. We evaluated how depth, habitat type, and mesh size influence community structures to test if habitat heterogeneity drives diversity despite the harsh Southern Ocean conditions. Our results revealed exceptionally high diversity, with metazoans richness comparable to or higher than temperate regions. Although environmental variables had limited effects on taxonomic richness, they significantly shaped community composition, with habitat type explaining the highest proportion of variance. Interestingly, we detected several ASVs 100% identical to North Sea and North Atlantic sequences, likely reflecting the limited taxonomic resolution of the 18S marker rather than global dispersal (the "meiofaunal paradox"). Overall, these findings demonstrate that Antarctic marine sediments host rich meiofaunal communities where ecological processes operate similarly to other global regions, contrasting sharply with depauperate continental Antarctic ecosystems.

Accelerating environmental change in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) necessitates robust extinction risk assessments to inform conservation priorities and track progress towards global biodiversity targets. Nevertheless, no systematic, region-wide baseline of extinction risk currently exists for tracking ASO biodiversity responses to ongoing change, a significant barrier to global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we present the first comprehensive synthesis of extinction risk knowledge spanning plants, animals, and fungi across the ASO, examining biases in current assessments, the distribution of Threatened species and their associated threats. In the absence of a complete regional species checklist, species were compiled from >6,800,000 occurrences and existing checklists, yielding 5,403 assessments representing 2,806 species using a data-inclusive workflow that increased available assessments by over three-fold. Assessments are heavily biased towards vertebrates (56% assessed), while invertebrates, despite their ecological prevalence, are markedly underrepresented (4% assessed). Among vertebrates, mammals have the highest proportion of Threatened species (35%), while ASO birds are disproportionately Threatened (27%) compared to the global average (12%) with the greatest threat for ASO species being Biological Resource Use. Despite more Threatened species in the sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, relative to assessment effort, these regions had fewer Threatened species than expected, indicating these areas may function as refugia. These pronounced assessment biases highlight the need for more balanced, representative, and data-inclusive extinction risk assessments to be able to effectively detect conservation status change. This work represents an important step in ensuring ASO representation in global biodiversity monitoring frameworks strengthening the capacity of these frameworks to detect, attribute, and respond to future biodiversity changes.

Groundwater-dependent ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots that provide habitat for specialised species. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) stresses the importance of identifying and protecting these ecosystems. However, they remain poorly mapped in temperate regions, as most studies have focused on (semi-) arid regions, where groundwater use by vegetation is both more prevalent and easier to detect from remote sensing. In this study, we transfer mapping approaches for groundwater-dependent vegetation (GDV) from dry climates into a novel framework for humid climates. To do so, we integrated, ECOSTRESS evapotranspiration data, together with high-resolution remote sensing data, regional geospatial data and field data to identify GDV. To test our framework, we trained and validated Random Forest models with eight predictor variables using 166 ground-truth vegetation plots to map GDV in Saxony-Anhalt (Germany). The final model achieved an overall accuracy of 0.97, identifying 2,067 km2 (41%) of GDV. Currently, only 19% are protected under the EU WFD. The proposed mapping framework offers a new solution for identifying GDV in temperate regions. The new GDV maps can contribute to managing groundwater resources and preserving biodiversity hotspots in regions facing increasing droughts, ultimately supporting implementation of the EU WFD.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys are increasingly used to assess marine biodiversity and inform deep-sea environmental decision-making, including mineral resource management and fisheries oversight. Yet standard low-volume protocols inherited from coastal work may be inadequate at depth, and no quantitative framework links depth and ecosystem context to defensible filtration volume targets. We compiled 841 eDNA samples from eight expeditions across the North Atlantic, Wider Caribbean, and Pacific (surface to 4000 m) to quantify how recoverable eDNA scales with depth and surface productivity, and to derive depth- and productivity-aware sampling targets. Total eDNA concentration declined with depth as a power law, with attenuation exponents (b) modulated by surface productivity: most gradual in eutrophic waters (b = 0.67), intermediate in mesotrophic (b = 0.90), and steepest in oligotrophic systems (b = 1.25); volume-weighted models explained 66-88% of the variance. At a fixed extract-concentration target, required filtration volumes diverged ~7-fold between oligotrophic and eutrophic systems at 200 m and ~38-fold at 4000 m. Conventional Niskin sampling, therefore, undersamples deep-sea biodiversity, particularly in mid- to low-productivity systems. Among laboratory parameters, the assay-specific extract-concentration target exerted greater leverage on required volume than extraction efficiency or elution volume. Volume-aware sampling paired with optimized recovery should be routine in deep-sea eDNA surveys.

We present a spatially explicit, global-scale index to assess the effects of the five direct anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity loss identified by the IPBES: land use change, natural resource extraction, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species. The Biodiversity Pressure Index (BPI) covers 30 years (1990-2020) with an annual time-step and a spatial resolution of 0.1{degrees}. We find that the coverage of drivers in available data varies and we highlight the key uncertainties that result from this. Using the best available data, we show that large parts of the terrestrial biosphere (approximately 89%, including Antarctica and Greenland) are under medium or high human pressure and that almost all areas (approximately 96%) have experienced an increase in pressure over the past three decades. The BPI shows varied spatial and temporal patterns across world regions and biomes, but many of these areas are dominated by pressures associated with rising temperatures and trade flows. Tropical and subtropical areas are subject to particularly rapidly-growing pressures, while wetlands consistently show the highest pressure levels across biomes. In revealing these and other patterns, the BPI provides a basis for improved understanding and management of biodiversity impacts in the future.

Benthic remineralization of organic matter is key to carbon and nutrient cycling, influencing both long-term carbon storage in the sediments and the release of nutrients that support primary production in the water column. With its multiple forms and ages of sea ice, Nares Strait in the Canadian Arctic offers a unique opportunity to address the knowledge gap of variability of benthic remineralization rates along a natural sea ice gradient. Here, we incubated sediment cores in different locations in Nares Strait characterised by different sea ice conditions ranging from first-year ice to multi-year ice, to measure oxygen and nutrient fluxes. To identify potential drivers, we measured environmental variables, identified macrofauna and calculated a suite of taxonomic and functional diversity indices. Our analyses showed that benthic fluxes varied significantly between the northern and southern regions of Nares Strait. The presence of deposit feeders and sea ice cover (number of days since ice-free) were the main drivers in benthic fluxes, explaining 22.6% and 13.9% of the benthic flux variation, respectively. Overall, functional diversity was a better predictor of benthic fluxes than taxonomic diversity, indicating its primary importance in controlling benthic ecosystems functioning. Our results reveal that, from a benthic biogeochemical point of view, Nares Strait seems to be dissected into two main sub-regions: (i) a permanently and highly sea ice-covered area north of Kennedy Channel, resembling deeper regions of the Arctic Ocean and (ii) a seasonally ice-covered area between the North Water Polynya and Kane Basin, where benthic fluxes values are equivalent to those reported in similar continental Arctic shelves. Consequently, the rapid functional shifts resulting from the ongoing decline in sea ice could enhance benthic remineralisation rates if deposit feeder were to become dominant in certain areas, reducing the role of the region and by extension, the Arctic, as a carbon sink.

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) are increasingly threatened across their native range, yet the relative influence of multiple stressors in shaping their population dynamics remains unclear. Current conservation strategies for both species are limited by incomplete data and limited assessment of affecting factors. Here, we integrated eDNA metabarcoding with Joint Species Distribution Modeling (JSDM) to assess how environmental gradients, pollution, and trophic associations interactively influence cetacean distributions in Hong Kong waters. We show that degraded water quality and intensified human activity negatively associated with cetacean occurrence, with clear species-specific responses to different stressors. S. chinensis covaried most strongly with Secchi disc depth, and presence of vessels, while N. phocaenoides was negatively associated with nitrate nitrogen and microbial pollution (sewage). The JSDM variance partitioning analysis highlighted that the occurrence of S. chinensis was primarily associated with anthropogenic disturbances (30.04%), followed by water physical properties (26.63%), whereas N. phocaenoides was more strongly associated with physical (40.9%) and anthropogenic disturbances (35.2%). By integrating eDNA and JSDM, our approach provides fine-scale diagnostics of species-specific vulnerabilities, supporting adaptive conservation strategies and guiding the realignment of protected areas to mitigate biodiversity loss in urbanized marine ecosystems. Environmental ImplicationOur study demonstrates that hazardous water pollutants, including microbial contamination, nutrient enrichment, and chemical stressors, vessel pressure, show strong, species-specific impacts on resident cetaceans in Hong Kong. By integrating eDNA metabarcoding with joint species distribution models, we provide a diagnostic framework that directly links pollutant profiles to ecological risk. These findings highlight that conventional conservation strategies overlooking pollution drivers are insufficient for marine megafauna persistence. Our approach offers an early-warning system for monitoring hazardous pollutants in coastal ecosystems and supports adaptive management strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss in urbanized seascapes.

Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) captures fine-scaled three-dimensional measurements of ecosystem structure, supporting monitoring of the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). Yet employing TLS across landscapes remains challenging in remote and topographically complex areas. Remote sensing provides a potential pathway for upscaling TLS-derived structural metrics, but to what extent is unquantified particularly in heterogenous environments, like oceanic islands. Here, we investigated the ability of remote sensing to estimate TLS-derived habitat structure across three contrasting habitats (lowland rainforest, montane cloud forest, and subalpine summit scrub) on La Reunion island. Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Aerial LiDAR (ALS) data were acquired over plots where TLS was completed. We derived defined indices of backscatter coefficients, vegetation indices, and LiDAR metrics and assessed their alignment with TLS measurements using a Procrustes analysis. Subsequently, we used General Additive Models to estimate TLS habitat structure from remote sensing variables. Sentinel-2 exhibited the highest multivariate alignment with TLS (r = 0.51). TLS measurements of horizontal and vertical structure were estimated with the highest cross-validated predictive accuracy (R2 0.39 - 0.73), whilst structural complexity metrics were estimated with greater difficulty (R2 0.02 - 0.20). Multi-sensor models outperformed all single-sensor models in prediction estimates. Model performance also varied across habitats, with the highest agreement between predicted and observed values in the lowland rainforest (r = 0.38), and the lowest agreement (r = 0.35) in the montane cloud forest. Yet the dominant structural feature of each habitat was most accurately captured with remote sensing. Our results demonstrate the potential of integrating multi-sensor remote sensing data to upscale key dimensions of TLS-derived ecosystem structure but remains challenging for fine-scale structural complexity. These findings highlight both the potential and constraints of remote sensing for developing scalable, long-term monitoring frameworks for EBVs, especially in structurally complex and underrepresented island ecosystems.

Although natural forests sequester carbon, this function may decline under chronic herbivory by abundant ungulates (hereafter overbrowsing). Specifically, overbrowsing alters stand structure, potentially impair carbon exchanges related to the vegetation. Further, overbrowsing may also accelerate soil erosion, especially in heavy-rainfall regions like Monsoon Asia. We quantified these impacts by estimating net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB; g C m-2 yr-1) by subtracting heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and lateral carbon export via erosion (Se) from net primary production (Pn) in southern Kyushu, Japan. Here, about 40-years of overbrowsing by sika deer (Cervus nippon) altered mixed broadleaf-conifer stands with presence of understory (PU) into stands with no understory (NU), then further altered into stands dominated by unpalatable shrublands (SR) or stands with canopy gaps (CG). The PU maintained a positive NECB (plot mean = 307.0 g C m-2 yr-1) because high Pn (721.9) exceeded the sum of Rh (175.4) and Se (239.5). Alteration from PU into NU converted NECB to negative (-98.2 g C m-2 yr-1). This was because the suppressed Pn (400.2 g C m-2 yr-1) could not offset the sum of Rh (170.6) and Se (327.7). Further degradation into CG caused a profound negative NECB (-894.4 g C m-2 yr-1), where Pn (71.9) offset only 7% of the sum of surging Rh (464.8) and Se (501.5). Alteration into SR showed a partially recovered NECB (97.3 g C m-2 yr-1), driven by shrub growth (Pn; 554.5, Rh; 175.4, Se; 239.5). However, this recovery is still limited given that lowered shrub biomass and prior topsoil loss via erosion. Our results validate previous findings that stand alteration from PU to SR or CG through NU leads to up to a 49% loss of ecosystem carbon stocks. Preventing stand alteration and soil erosion are key countermeasures against chronic overbrowsing and subsequent erosion. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=102 SRC="FIGDIR/small/719128v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (36K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@167aef0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@e45a6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@fec89borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1246bea_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG We reported that over 40 years of sika deer overbrowsing and subsequent soil erosion severely degraded the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of mountain forests in Japan. The loss of understory vegetation drove the transition of intact stands into degraded states (no-understory, shrub-dominated, or canopy gaps). Based on field measurements, we quantified that this structural alteration suppressed net primary production (Pn) while increased both heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and lateral carbon loss via soil erosion (Se). Consequently, the forest shifted from a net carbon sink (+307 g C m-{superscript 2} yr-{superscript 1}) to a source (up to -894 g C m-{superscript 2} yr-{superscript 1}). These findings provide compelling empirical evidence that increasing ungulate populations, compounded by the rising frequency of heavy rainfall, may severely undermine the carbon sequestration functions traditionally expected of natural forests.

Statewide tracking of urban tree canopy change is essential for evaluating progress toward policy targets, but detecting real change requires both high-resolution mapping and rigorous uncertainty estimation. We produced a four-year canopy cover time series for all California census-designated places using 60-cm NAIP aerial imagery and a U-Net deep learning model trained with semi-automated LiDAR-derived labels and manually annotated tiles. Canopy cover and change were estimated using stratified, error-adjusted area estimation, enabling comparisons across years. Statewide canopy cover showed a modest negative trend from 2016 to 2022 (Sens slope: -0.60% per year), but confidence intervals included zero across all groups and climate zones, indicating that trends were not statistically distinguishable from no change. Urban canopy cover was consistently lower than non-urban canopy by approximately six percentage points, and canopy cover was highest in the Northern California Coast and lowest in the Southwest Desert. Residential parcels accounted for 55-56% of canopy within incorporated urban areas across all years, indicating that statewide canopy increase goals will require engagement with private landowners. Error adjustment substantially altered canopy estimates relative to raw pixel-count totals, with direct implications for AB 2251 canopy tracking where baselines and targets drawn from unadjusted maps may not reflect true canopy extent. This open-source workflow is transferable to future NAIP acquisition years and other U.S. states, providing a scalable framework for long-term urban forest monitoring.

Pacific salmon are keystone species to North Pacific freshwater, coastal, and oceanic ecosystems, but many populations have declined or become more variable in recent decades due to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. Long-term records are needed to understand past changes, identify ecosystem stressors, and guide restoration. We used sedimentary DNA (sedDNA), an emerging paleoecological approach offering broader taxonomic information than traditional methods, to reconstruct ecosystem changes across five Pacific salmon nursery lakes in British Columbia (Canada). DNA metabarcoding targeting the 18S ribosomal RNA gene V7 region was used to track shifts in eukaryotic communities including algae and invertebrates over centuries to millennia. Most lakes showed notable algal community shifts over the past two centuries, with declining green algae and rising diatom relative abundances. Chrysophytes and dinoflagellates also increased over the past century in most lakes, likely driven by stronger thermal stratification, which favored these motile and mixotrophic algae that are capable of vertical migration and flexible nutrient acquisition. We contextualized the trajectories of each core through an ordination analysis based on 98 lakes distributed across British Columbia, which identified land-use changes and longer growing seasons as potential drivers. Network analyses of the sedDNA time series revealed decreasing modularity and increasing connection across lakes, suggesting a shift in resilience mechanisms from between-module buffering by compartmentalized specialists to within-guild insurance via functional overlap among generalists. Our findings demonstrate that sedDNA provides taxonomically rich, long-term insights into aquatic ecological dynamics, which are foundational for understanding and protecting Pacific salmon nursery habitats.

For decades, the "population bomb" has dominated environmental discourse, arguing that high fertility rates -especially in the low income countries- drive global environmental problems. However, current trajectories show global declines in population growth rates, especially in higher development index (HDI) nations, which have the highest consumption. Here we showcase evidence for a paradigm shift from the "population bomb" to a "consumption bomb" narrative of the Anthropocene emphasizing the central role of increases in per capita energy use and CO2 production, modulated by current standard metrics for development and affluence, in transforming the Earth system. Defusing and manoaging the consumption bomb requires rethinking economic growth and wellbeing metrics, reallocating resources toward global change retribution and mitigation, especially in low HDI countries, and transitioning from continually-increasing energy expenditures, especially from fossil fuels, toward more equitable and ecologically resilient ways of living. A new sustainability science must move beyond population counts to confront the biophysical and energetic consequences of the changing cultural, economic, and technological systems that sustain ever-growing demands on Earths life-support systems.

Soil microbes support life on Earth by regulating the availability of nutrients in soils, yet we lack a fundamental, baseline knowledge of which fungi and bacteria are associated with specific soil nitrogen (N) cycling processes across ecosystems. We identified functional and taxonomic groups of fungi and bacteria that are associated with net ammonification and nitrification rates in soils from diverse ecosystems across the United States, including the environmental contexts where these relationships exist. To accomplish this, we co-analyzed soil, microbial, plant, and climatic data from 19 sites across the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Distinct microbial groups were associated with net ammonification versus nitrification rates, highlighting the need to measure and model these two processes separately. The relative abundance of several microbial groups known for their N-decomposition abilities (i.e., Acidobacteriae, Bacteroidia, Saccharomycetes yeasts, ectomycorrhizal fungi) were positively associated with net ammonification rates across diverse environmental conditions. Meanwhile, pathogenic fungi, copiotrophic bacteria, and bacterial classes containing denitrifying bacteria were positively associated with net nitrification rates in many wet, hot, and high-N environments. These results deepen our understanding of soil microbiome ecology and represent a practical starting point to develop microbial-explicit biogeochemical cycling models at large spatial scales.

Probiotics can enhance coral thermal tolerance, yet their ecosystem-level effects remain unknown. Here, we present the first long-term in-situ test of whether coral-targeted probiotics influence adjacent cryptobenthic reef communities during a record marine heatwave. Probiotics were applied to Pocillopora favosa and Acropora spp. coral colonies for 18 months, spanning the fourth global bleaching event. Cryptobenthic communities were assessed using biomimetic monitoring structures integrating biodiversity surveys, molecular profiling, microbial network analyses, and metabolic assays. Before the heatwave, probiotic and control patches were comparable across structural, microbial, and functional metrics. Following thermal stress, control patches exhibited pronounced losses of cryptobenthic invertebrate abundance and taxonomic breadth, microbial network fragmentation, and net carbonate dissolution. In contrast, probiotic-treated patches retained higher biodiversity, cohesive microbial interaction architectures, and positive calcification. These findings demonstrate that coral-targeted probiotics can scale from host-level intervention to buffer adjacent ecosystem-level responses to extreme marine heatwaves under accelerating climate change. TeaserA coral-targeted probiotic strategy enhances multi-trophic resilience under heat stress.